Gold Outlook – Analysts Are Being Too Cautious

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The LBMA recently published a report of its forecast of the market prices of precious metals in 2023. The opinions of different individuals are controversial in this case. Some agree that gold prices will rise a bit, while there are those who believe the price will drop in the foreseeable future. In my opinion, it will increase in price instead of declining. The ideas are almost applicable to gold and silver. The price is expected to increase slightly. In the meantime, the price of platinum will fall by 2023.

The LBMA suggests that the price of gold will rise by 12%, and silver will rise by 16% in 2023.
The price of palladium is forecast to rise by 37%.

There are some forecasts of the average gold price. One of them foresee the gold will sell at $1755 and another thinks the price will be $1398 by 2023. This probability is determined by the actual low-interest rate that the current US policy will have to keep in order to make re-election go smoothly, which will bring the consumption ratio to zero and drive the market.

When all the forecasts are combined, we can calculate that the average value of gold will be $1550 a year later. It is slightly different from the existing average price, which triggers the troubles in the economic aspect.

Some geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainties will prevail, and US monetary policy, US presidential re-election, and influence of other factors, individual and collective, all contribute to some kind of values fluctuation, being unstable and inaccurate.
We think that the gold “fear factor” will survive, since many foreign trade with the US. And We believe investors will choose gold as an alternative.

Central banks will also play an important role this year in maintaining the increasing trend in value of the precious metal. The Fed will have to keep its benchmark interest rate low. This is also because 2023 is a presidential election year. In this way the Fed would try to look non-partisan as always. So, we can bet that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged this year. This low interest rate will increase the price of gold, because it will reduce the risk of competition from bonds and non-yielding bullion.


The central bank of China has taken liquidity injection measures in order to help the financial market. Because of the Covid-19 situation the People’s Bank of China has made a statement that it will buy 1.2 trillion yuan in short-term bonds. The Chinese government is trying to prevent the withdrawal of investments and it seems to be working. An accommodative monetary policy stance should also help the gold prices in 2023.

It is known that central banks are continuing to purchase gold. The reserves of it are reaching a very high level which hasn’t been achieved in the last half a century.

With all this in mind, it is possible that the value of the precious metal will be higher than expected. Central bank monetary policy and gold purchases will keep the bull market in good shape. Because of some uncertainties investors will almost for sure decide to keep their gold. A bullish longer-term stance toward gold is still warranted.

Gold Outlook – Analysts Are Being Too Cautious

Investors may find themselves perplexed when considering the gold outlook; experts across the board are seemingly split between bullish and bearish predictions. However, opinion is leaning slightly more towards the bearish camp, with many analysts suggesting caution when investing in gold due to upcoming economic and political instability.

Why are Analysts Cautious for the Gold Outlook?

Analysts are warning investors that instability in the world’s economies and political circles will lead to a drop in gold prices. This could be a result of a number of factors including:

  • Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war.
  • Potential of further declines in the British pound.
  • Drop in inflation, reducing the need for central banks to buy gold.
  • Rise in US Treasury yields and US dollar strength.

What are the Positive Factors That Could Enhance the Gold Outlook?

Despite the cautious sentiment of some, a number of bullish analysts are positive on the outlook for gold, citing a number of macroeconomic factors that could provide support and drive prices higher. These could include:

  • Risk of a US recession – if the US economy shows signs of slowing down, investors could look to gold to provide a safe haven, and drive prices up.
  • Relaxation of tensions between the US and China – the possibility of a resolution to their trade dispute could alleviate the strain on global markets, resulting in a more positive outlook for gold prices.

Frequently Asked Questions about Gold Outlook – Analysts Are Being Too Cautious

  • What factors are causing analysts to be cautious about the gold outlook?

    Factors such as uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war, potential decline in the British pound, drop in inflation, and US Treasury yields are causing analysts to be cautious.

  • What could provide support and drive gold prices higher?

    Risk of a US recession and relaxation of tensions between the US and China could provide support and drive gold prices higher.


Experts across the board are split between bullish and bearish predictions for the gold outlook. Cautious analysts are warning that instability in the world’s economies and political circles will lead to a drop in gold prices. Bullish analysts, however, point to potential support from factors such as risk of a US recession and relaxation of tensions between the US and China. Ultimately, time will tell what direction gold prices head in the near future.